Flamengo 1-0 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Atletico-MG at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico-MG stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Flamengo at 1.80 PPG versus Atletico-MG's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Atletico-MG trading profile (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 48% versus Atletico-MG 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 56% | Atletico-MG 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.26 xG and Atletico-MG 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.182 / defence 1.120 | Atletico-MG attack 0.964 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 0.942 / away 1.006. Data: 25 Flamengo games / 27 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 38% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 30%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico-MG 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 40% | Atletico-MG 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 38% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Flamengo 1.26 / Atletico-MG 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.182 / def 1.120 | Atletico-MG attack 0.964 / def 1.133 | league avg home 0.942 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Atletico-MG xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Atletico-MG.
Where is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG part of?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 38% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Flamengo and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Atletico-MG in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Atletico-MG (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.18x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
38%
2.60
32%
3.16
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.35
1.09
Atletico-MG xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.09 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 14W 4D 7L from 25 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico-MG, meanwhile, have gone 17W 5D 3L across 25 games — 2.24 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico-MG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico-MG by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Flamengo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 8W 1D 4L from 13 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico-MG's away record stands at 6W 4D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico-MG's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.68 scored and 0.72 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against Atletico-MG's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Atletico-MG in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 14W 4D 7L in their last 25 games (1.84 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 17W 5D 3L in their last 25 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Atletico-MG away?
Flamengo's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.92 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Flamengo
2
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 6, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Atletico-MG 0-4 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 38%, Atletico-MG 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Flamengo) and 38% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Atletico-MG in 38%; Flamengo have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Flamengo's recent matches and 54% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Flamengo's recent games and 38% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Atletico-MG 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Atletico-MG 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.26 xG and Atletico-MG 1.09 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico-MG landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.18 / defence 1.12 against Atletico-MG attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 25/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 38% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 30%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 56%, Atletico-MG 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.84. Form was overturned, with Flamengo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.