Bahia 3-4 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Bahia welcome America Mineiro to Estádio Governador Roberto Santos. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.17 xG and America Mineiro 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.976 / defence 0.886 | America Mineiro attack 0.636 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 0.956 / away 1.061. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Bahia games / 7 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 50% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 19%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | America Mineiro 5.26. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — America Mineiro's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Governador Roberto Santos • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 50% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 31% | xG Bahia 1.17 / America Mineiro 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.976 / def 0.886 | America Mineiro attack 0.636 / def 1.249 | league avg home 0.956 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Bahia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.60
America Mineiro xG
31%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs America Mineiro kick off?
Bahia vs America Mineiro kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What was the final score in Bahia vs America Mineiro?
Bahia 3 - 4 America Mineiro.
Where is Bahia vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What competition is Bahia vs America Mineiro part of?
Bahia vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 50% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Bahia and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and America Mineiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and America Mineiro in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bahia's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
50%
2.02
32%
3.15
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bahia xG
Total xG
1.76
0.60
America Mineiro xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.21
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.0 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Bahia and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bahia and 0.60 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
America Mineiro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bahia's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bahia
1
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and America Mineiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, America Mineiro have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when America Mineiro 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and America Mineiro?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as America Mineiro defy the odds to beat Bahia 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Bahia 3-4 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.17 xG and America Mineiro 0.60 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. America Mineiro outscored their 0.60 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against America Mineiro attack 0.64 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 50% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 19%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a America Mineiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.