Internacional 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to face Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.00 xG and Palmeiras 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.880 / defence 1.296 | Palmeiras attack 0.920 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 0.956 / away 1.061. Data: 7 Internacional games / 7 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 29% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 42%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Palmeiras 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 29% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Internacional 1.00 / Palmeiras 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.880 / def 1.296 | Palmeiras attack 0.920 / def 1.193 | league avg home 0.956 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Palmeiras xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Palmeiras kick off?
Internacional vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Internacional 1 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Internacional vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Palmeiras part of?
Internacional vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 29% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Internacional and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.88x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (0.92x) against Internacional's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
29%
3.43
29%
3.49
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.27
1.27
Palmeiras xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Internacional and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Internacional and 1.27 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Internacional
2
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 2, Palmeiras have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Internacional 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Internacional 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Internacional 1-2 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.00 xG and Palmeiras 1.27 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.88 / defence 1.30 against Palmeiras attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 29% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 42%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.