Santos 0-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Santos at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Sport Recife encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Sport Recife travel to Estádio Urbano Caldeira to take on Santos. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 July 2021, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santos stand at 3W 2D 2L from 7 Serie A matches — 1.57 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Santos have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Santos's home record at Estádio Urbano Caldeira: 3W 1D 0L from 4 Serie A appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.57 — Santos are significantly better at Estádio Urbano Caldeira than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sport Recife have recorded 1W 2D 4L from 7 outings — 0.71 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sport Recife have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sport Recife's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Serie A this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Santos are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.86 PPG ahead (1.57 vs 0.71). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Santos in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Santos 29% | Sport Recife 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santos 43% | Sport Recife 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.53 xG and Sport Recife 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.199 / defence 0.839 | Sport Recife attack 0.684 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 0.970 / away 1.121. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Santos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Santos games / 7 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 59% | Draw 26% | Sport Recife 16%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Sport Recife 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Santos (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santos are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Santos 25% | Sport Recife 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jul 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 59% | Draw 26% | Sport Recife 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 37% | xG Santos 1.53 / Sport Recife 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.199 / def 0.839 | Sport Recife attack 0.684 / def 1.313 | league avg home 0.970 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Santos (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Sport Recife xG
37%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Sport Recife kick off?
Santos vs Sport Recife kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 1 July 2021 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Sport Recife?
Santos 0 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Santos vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Sport Recife part of?
Santos vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 59% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Santos and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santos and Sport Recife in?
Santos (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Sport Recife (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Santos's attack at 1.20x the league average against Sport Recife's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.87
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Santos xG
Total xG
2.17
0.64
Sport Recife xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
3%
29.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Santos and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Santos and 0.64 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Sport Recife?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santos come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 2D 2L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Santos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sport Recife sit at 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sport Recife, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Santos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Santos's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Santos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sport Recife have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sport Recife's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santos are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.57 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Santos have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Sport Recife in 29%.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Early Season
Sport Recife
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Sport Recife away?
Santos's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 2.50 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Santos or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Santos won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Santos
3
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Santos have won 1, Sport Recife have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Santos 3-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Sport Recife?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 25%, Sport Recife 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Santos) and 50% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Sport Recife in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Santos's recent matches and 50% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Santos's recent games and 50% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Santos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 8, as Santos and Sport Recife drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.53 xG and Sport Recife 0.64 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Santos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.20 / defence 0.84 against Sport Recife attack 0.68 / defence 1.31, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 59% | Draw 26% | Sport Recife 16%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 43%, Sport Recife 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sport Recife's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Santos arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Sport Recife (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.