Fortaleza EC 3-2 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo plays host to Fortaleza EC versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.69 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.303 / defence 1.049 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.945 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.001. Fortaleza EC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Fortaleza EC games / 7 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 53% | Draw 25% | Chapecoense-sc 22%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Chapecoense-sc 4.55. Fortaleza EC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortaleza EC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 53% | Draw 25% | Chapecoense-sc 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.69 / Chapecoense-sc 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.303 / def 1.049 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.945 / def 1.369 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Chapecoense-sc xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc?
Fortaleza EC 3 - 2 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 53% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Chapecoense-sc in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 1.30x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.94x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.99
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.68
0.99
Chapecoense-sc xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
4%
24.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.99 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
0
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Chapecoense-sc?
From 2 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2021, when Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Chapecoense-sc?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Chapecoense-sc 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Chapecoense-sc 3-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.69 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.99 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chapecoense-sc outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.30 / defence 1.05 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.94 / defence 1.37, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 53% | Draw 25% | Chapecoense-sc 22%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.