RB Bragantino 0-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Ceara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Ceara travel to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to take on RB Bragantino. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 July 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 5W 2D 0L from 7 Serie A matches — 2.43 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.43 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RB Bragantino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 1W 2D 0L at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid — 1.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.67 lags behind their overall 2.43 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have recorded 2W 3D 2L from 7 outings — 1.29 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ceara have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ceara's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Serie A this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.29 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
RB Bragantino are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.14 PPG ahead (2.43 vs 1.29). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. RB Bragantino register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Ceara in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Ceara in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Bragantino 71% and Ceara 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RB Bragantino 86% | Ceara 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.76 xG and Ceara 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.465 / defence 1.393 | Ceara attack 0.726 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 0.952 / away 1.083. RB Bragantino carry an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 RB Bragantino games / 7 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 52% | Draw 25% | Ceara 23%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Ceara 4.35. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 100% | Ceara 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jul 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 52% | Draw 25% | Ceara 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG RB Bragantino 1.76 / Ceara 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.465 / def 1.393 | Ceara attack 0.726 / def 1.264 | league avg home 0.952 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ceara xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Ceara kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Ceara kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 1 July 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Ceara?
RB Bragantino 0 - 0 Ceara.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Ceara part of?
RB Bragantino vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 52% chance of winning, Ceara a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both RB Bragantino and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Ceara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Ceara in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-2D-0L in 7 | 2.43 PPG | GF 2.43 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Ceara (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.47) and Ceara's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.00
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.86
1.09
Ceara xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
4%
25.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.09 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Bragantino come into this having played 7 games, going 5W 2D 0L for 2.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for RB Bragantino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ceara sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ceara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Bragantino carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Ceara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
RB Bragantino's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Ceara have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Ceara in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Early Season
Ceara
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Ceara in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 games (2.43 PPG), while Ceara have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Ceara away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.67 PPG; Ceara away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
RB Bragantino
4
Draws
1
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 1, Ceara have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Ceara 1-0 RB Bragantino.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — RB Bragantino at 100%, Ceara at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for RB Bragantino and 33% for Ceara. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ceara in 33%; Ceara in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Ceara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of RB Bragantino's games and 67% of Ceara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of RB Bragantino's matches and 33% of Ceara's.
Do RB Bragantino and Ceara tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ceara in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RB Bragantino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino and Ceara finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.76 xG and Ceara 1.09 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RB Bragantino fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Ceara landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.47 / defence 1.39 against Ceara attack 0.73 / defence 1.26, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 52% | Draw 25% | Ceara 23%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 86%, Ceara 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Ceara's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.