Chapecoense-sc 0-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Arena Condá to face Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chapecoense-sc's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 4D 4L from 8 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Condá, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 1D 2L this season (3 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Bahia (all games): 3W 2D 3L across 8 Serie A outings this term — 1.38 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.88 per game and conceding 1.62. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bahia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bahia arrive in superior form — a 0.88 PPG advantage (1.38 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Chapecoense-sc — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bahia — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chapecoense-sc 75% and Bahia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chapecoense-sc 62% | Bahia 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.98 xG and Bahia 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.701 / defence 1.302 | Bahia attack 1.191 / defence 1.450. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.077. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.450 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Chapecoense-sc games / 8 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 21% | Draw 27% | Bahia 52%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Bahia 1.92. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 33% | Bahia 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 21% | Draw 27% | Bahia 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.98 / Bahia 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.701 / def 1.302 | Bahia attack 1.191 / def 1.450 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Bahia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Bahia xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 July 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Chapecoense-sc 0 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 21% chance of winning, Bahia a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Bahia in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-4D-4L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Bahia (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (0.70) and Bahia's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.19x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
21%
4.86
27%
3.66
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.65
1.67
Bahia xG
4.86
21%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
25.86
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.67 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Chapecoense-sc have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 4D 4L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia's form line: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bahia are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Bahia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.88 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Bahia in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Bahia in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Bahia have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Bahia away?
Bahia's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.33 PPG; Bahia away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bahia have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 25 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
0
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Bahia?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Bahia have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Bahia 2-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Chapecoense-sc, 100% for Bahia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Chapecoense-sc and 100% for Bahia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Chapecoense-sc's games and 100% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Chapecoense-sc's matches and 100% of Bahia's.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Bahia tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bahia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Chapecoense-sc 0-2 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.98 xG and Bahia 1.67 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.70 / defence 1.30 against Bahia attack 1.19 / defence 1.45, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 21% | Draw 27% | Bahia 52%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 62%, Bahia 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bahia's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.