Palmeiras 3-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Bahia at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 28 June 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.52 xG and Bahia 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.258 / defence 1.192 | Bahia attack 1.143 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.018. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Palmeiras games / 6 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 41% | Draw 25% | Bahia 35%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Bahia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Monday 28 Jun 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 41% | Draw 25% | Bahia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Palmeiras 1.52 / Bahia 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.258 / def 1.192 | Bahia attack 1.143 / def 1.251 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Bahia xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Bahia kick off?
Palmeiras vs Bahia kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 28 June 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras 3 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Palmeiras vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Bahia part of?
Palmeiras vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 41% chance of winning, Bahia a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Palmeiras and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.26) and Bahia's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
41%
2.46
25%
4.05
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.91
1.39
Bahia xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.39 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Bahia runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
1
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Bahia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Bahia?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Bahia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Bahia 3-2 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.52 xG and Bahia 1.39 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.26 / defence 1.19 against Bahia attack 1.14 / defence 1.25, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 41% | Draw 25% | Bahia 35%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.