SK Beveren 2-2 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Lommel United at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 7W 1D 2L at Freethielstadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethielstadion than their overall form suggests.
Lommel United — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SK Beveren at 1.30 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SK Beveren have won 1, Lommel United 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2022, ended 2–3 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lommel United trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 54% versus Lommel United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 67% | Lommel United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.44 xG and Lommel United 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.056 / defence 1.006 | Lommel United attack 0.875 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.365. Data: 33 SK Beveren games / 33 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 43% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 31%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Lommel United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 50% | Lommel United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 43% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG SK Beveren 1.44 / Lommel United 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.056 / def 1.006 | Lommel United attack 0.875 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lommel United xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Lommel United kick off?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
SK Beveren 2 - 2 Lommel United.
Where is SK Beveren vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Lommel United part of?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 43% chance of winning, Lommel United a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SK Beveren and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
Record (4 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 2 | Lommel United 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Lommel United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.06) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.86
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.65
1.20
Lommel United xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.20 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 23W 12D 8L from 43 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 22W 5D 16L across 43 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 1.88 PPG, Lommel United on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 15W 3D 3L from 21 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — SK Beveren are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lommel United's away record stands at 9W 3D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.56 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 23W 12D 8L in their last 43 games (1.88 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 22W 5D 16L in their last 43 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Lommel United away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.29 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.43 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Lommel United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
4
Draws
2
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 57%, Lommel United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SK Beveren and 67% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SK Beveren's games and 57% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SK Beveren's matches and 67% of Lommel United's.
Do SK Beveren and Lommel United tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren and Lommel United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren and Lommel United finished level at 2-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.44 xG and Lommel United 1.20 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Lommel United attack 0.88 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 43% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 31%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 67%, Lommel United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Lommel United's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.88 PPG, Lommel United 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.