SK Beveren 3-2 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as SK Beveren welcome Dender to Freethielstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren at Freethielstadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethielstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dender have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SK Beveren) versus 1.70 (Dender). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SK Beveren, 0 for Dender and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 5–2 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Dender trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 54% versus Dender 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 68% | Dender 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.10 xG and Dender 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.114 / defence 1.060 | Dender attack 0.969 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.392. Data: 34 SK Beveren games / 34 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 29% | Draw 26% | Dender 45%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Dender 2.22. Dender hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dender as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dender offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 50% | Dender 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 29% | Draw 26% | Dender 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG SK Beveren 1.10 / Dender 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.114 / def 1.060 | Dender attack 0.969 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Dender (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Dender xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Dender kick off?
SK Beveren vs Dender kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Dender?
SK Beveren 3 - 2 Dender.
Where is SK Beveren vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Dender part of?
SK Beveren vs Dender is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 29% chance of winning, Dender a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SK Beveren and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Dender?
Record (2 meetings): SK Beveren 2W | Draws 0 | Dender 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and Dender in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Dender (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.11) and Dender's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
29%
3.46
26%
3.79
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.53
1.43
Dender xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
7%
14.44
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.43 for Dender, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 23W 13D 8L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dender's form line: 16W 11D 17L from 44 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dender.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.23 PPG from 22 outings (15W 4D 3L).
On the road, Dender have gone 8W 8D 6L from 22 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.36 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Dender in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 23W 13D 8L in their last 44 games (1.86 PPG), while Dender have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Dender away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.23 PPG; Dender away: 1.45 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dender in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Dender runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting Dender specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SK Beveren
0
Draws
1
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Dender?
From 4 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 3, Dender have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Dender 1-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Dender?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 59%, Dender 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (SK Beveren) and 27% (Dender).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Dender in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SK Beveren's games and 59% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of SK Beveren's recent games and 27% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Dender tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Dender in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat Dender 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Dender 3-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.10 xG and Dender 1.43 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Dender attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 29% | Draw 26% | Dender 45%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SK Beveren win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 68%, Dender 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Dender's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.