RSC Anderlecht II 1-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Lommel United travel to Stade Roi Baudouin to take on RSC Anderlecht II. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RSC Anderlecht II stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Roi Baudouin, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Roi Baudouin this season.
Lommel United — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RSC Anderlecht II 1.50 PPG, Lommel United 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. RSC Anderlecht II register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lommel United in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for RSC Anderlecht II, 0 for Lommel United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
RSC Anderlecht II trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Lommel United trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RSC Anderlecht II 64% versus Lommel United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RSC Anderlecht II 67% | Lommel United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RSC Anderlecht II 1.76 xG and Lommel United 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.224 / defence 1.186 | Lommel United attack 0.935 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.352. Lommel United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing RSC Anderlecht II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 RSC Anderlecht II games / 32 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 44% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 33%. Fair-value odds: RSC Anderlecht II 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Lommel United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RSC Anderlecht II 60% | Lommel United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Roi Baudouin • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 44% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG RSC Anderlecht II 1.76 / Lommel United 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.224 / def 1.186 | Lommel United attack 0.935 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Lommel United xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United kick off?
RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stade Roi Baudouin.
What was the final score in RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United?
RSC Anderlecht II 1 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Stade Roi Baudouin.
What competition is RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United part of?
RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives RSC Anderlecht II a 44% chance of winning, Lommel United a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United?
Record (2 meetings): RSC Anderlecht II 1W | Draws 1 | Lommel United 0W.
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United in?
RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Lommel United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RSC Anderlecht II's attack at 1.22x the league average against Lommel United's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus RSC Anderlecht II's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
44%
2.28
23%
4.35
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Total xG
3.26
1.50
Lommel United xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for RSC Anderlecht II and 1.50 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RSC Anderlecht II's recent record stands at 13W 13D 16L from 42 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 22W 4D 16L across 42 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lommel United by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RSC Anderlecht II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RSC Anderlecht II have managed 4W 8D 9L from 21 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 10W 2D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RSC Anderlecht II are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.57 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United in coming into this match?
RSC Anderlecht II have gone 13W 13D 16L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 22W 4D 16L in their last 42 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RSC Anderlecht II at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RSC Anderlecht II at home: 0.95 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.52 PPG.
Have RSC Anderlecht II or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
RSC Anderlecht II have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Lommel United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Feb 2025, when RSC Anderlecht II won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RSC Anderlecht II's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
RSC Anderlecht II
3
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United?
From 8 meetings on record, RSC Anderlecht II have won 2, Lommel United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lommel United 2-0 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RSC Anderlecht II 62%, Lommel United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for RSC Anderlecht II and 71% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RSC Anderlecht II home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RSC Anderlecht II play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of RSC Anderlecht II's games and 57% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RSC Anderlecht II vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of RSC Anderlecht II's matches and 71% of Lommel United's.
Do RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United tend to score early?
RSC Anderlecht II have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Roi Baudouin, Regular Season - 11, as RSC Anderlecht II and Lommel United drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.76 xG and Lommel United 1.50 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.22 / defence 1.19 against Lommel United attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 44% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 33%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 67%, Lommel United 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.