Lommel United 1-2 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lommel United face Patro Eisden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Patro Eisden travel to Soeverein Stadion to take on Lommel United in Challenger Pro League (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lommel United stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lommel United's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lommel United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Patro Eisden have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Patro Eisden have posted 2W 3D 1L from their last 6 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from their last 6 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Lommel United) versus 1.60 (Patro Eisden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Patro Eisden in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 58% versus Patro Eisden 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 50% | Patro Eisden 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.08 xG and Patro Eisden 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.019 / defence 0.693 | Patro Eisden attack 0.768 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.392. Patro Eisden's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Lommel United have a tight defence (rating 0.693), which is pulling Patro Eisden's projected output down. Data: built from Lommel United's last 34 games and Patro Eisden's last 12.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 43% | Draw 32% | Patro Eisden 25%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.32 | Draw 3.12 | Patro Eisden 4.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Patro Eisden's lower xG of 0.74 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 73% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lommel United 40% (last 10 home games) | Patro Eisden 50% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 43% | Draw 32% | Patro Eisden 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Lommel United 1.08 / Patro Eisden 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.019 / def 0.693 | Patro Eisden attack 0.768 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Patro Eisden xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lommel United vs Patro Eisden FAQs
What time does Lommel United vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Lommel United vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Lommel United 1 - 2 Patro Eisden.
Where is Lommel United vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Patro Eisden part of?
Lommel United vs Patro Eisden is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 43% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Lommel United and Patro Eisden will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Lommel United vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lommel United's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lommel United's last 34 games and Patro Eisden's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
43%
2.32
32%
3.12
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Lommel United xG
Total xG
1.82
0.74
Patro Eisden xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.90
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lommel United vs Patro Eisden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.74 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lommel United come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 3D 3L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.75 PPG, Patro Eisden on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lommel United's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across their last 5 home games, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Lommel United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 1.80 points per game from their last 5 away games (2W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.25 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
Lommel United (Home) vs Patro Eisden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lommel United
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Lommel United vs Patro Eisden Form FAQs
What form are Lommel United and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Patro Eisden away?
Lommel United's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 2.60 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2024, when Patro Eisden won Patro Eisden 4-0 Lommel United.
Lommel United's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lommel United
1
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Lommel United vs Patro Eisden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Patro Eisden?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lommel United have won 1, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Patro Eisden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Lommel United 1-1 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lommel United 20% BTTS, Patro Eisden 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Lommel United and 40% for Patro Eisden.
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Patro Eisden in 60%; Patro Eisden in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lommel United vs Patro Eisden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lommel United and Patro Eisden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Lommel United's recent matches and 40% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lommel United and Patro Eisden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Lommel United's recent games and 40% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat Lommel United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Lommel United 1-2 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.08 xG and Patro Eisden 0.74 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Patro Eisden outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.02 / defence 0.69 against Patro Eisden attack 0.77 / defence 0.90, drawn from 34/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 43% | Draw 32% | Patro Eisden 25%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Patro Eisden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 50%, Patro Eisden 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.75 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.