RSC Anderlecht II 1-3 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deinze make the trip to Stade Roi Baudouin to face RSC Anderlecht II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RSC Anderlecht II have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II at Stade Roi Baudouin this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Roi Baudouin this season.
Deinze (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for RSC Anderlecht II against 1.70 for Deinze. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RSC Anderlecht II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Deinze in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RSC Anderlecht II lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 3–2 with RSC Anderlecht II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
RSC Anderlecht II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Deinze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RSC Anderlecht II 65% and Deinze 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RSC Anderlecht II 65% | Deinze 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RSC Anderlecht II 1.52 xG and Deinze 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.140 / defence 1.148 | Deinze attack 0.840 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.323. Data: 33 RSC Anderlecht II games / 33 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 43% | Draw 25% | Deinze 32%. Fair-value odds: RSC Anderlecht II 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Deinze 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: RSC Anderlecht II 60% | Deinze 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Roi Baudouin • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 43% | Draw 25% | Deinze 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG RSC Anderlecht II 1.52 / Deinze 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.140 / def 1.148 | Deinze attack 0.840 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Deinze xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze kick off?
RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Roi Baudouin.
What was the final score in RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze?
RSC Anderlecht II 1 - 3 Deinze.
Where is RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Roi Baudouin.
What competition is RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze part of?
RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives RSC Anderlecht II a 43% chance of winning, Deinze a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both RSC Anderlecht II and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and Deinze?
Record (2 meetings): RSC Anderlecht II 1W | Draws 1 | Deinze 0W.
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and Deinze in?
RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Deinze (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RSC Anderlecht II's attack rating (1.14) and Deinze's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (0.84x) against RSC Anderlecht II's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
43%
2.33
25%
3.98
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Total xG
2.79
1.27
Deinze xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are RSC Anderlecht II and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for RSC Anderlecht II and 1.27 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RSC Anderlecht II come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 14D 16L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.53 PPG from 43 outings (20W 6D 17L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for RSC Anderlecht II against 1.53 for Deinze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
RSC Anderlecht II's home form reads 4W 8D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (7W 2D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deinze's season.
Attack vs Defence
RSC Anderlecht II are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.44 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Deinze in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and Deinze in coming into this match?
RSC Anderlecht II have gone 13W 14D 16L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Deinze have gone 20W 6D 17L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RSC Anderlecht II at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RSC Anderlecht II at home: 0.95 PPG; Deinze away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Deinze have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deinze won 4-1 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Deinze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
RSC Anderlecht II
1
Draws
3
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and Deinze?
From 5 meetings on record, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, Deinze have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RSC Anderlecht II and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2024, when RSC Anderlecht II 1-4 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between RSC Anderlecht II and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RSC Anderlecht II 67%, Deinze 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (RSC Anderlecht II) and 48% (Deinze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Deinze in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RSC Anderlecht II home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RSC Anderlecht II play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of RSC Anderlecht II's games and 48% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RSC Anderlecht II vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of RSC Anderlecht II's matches and 48% of Deinze's.
Do RSC Anderlecht II and Deinze tend to score early?
RSC Anderlecht II have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Deinze in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RSC Anderlecht II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat RSC Anderlecht II 1-3 at Stade Roi Baudouin, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.52 xG and Deinze 1.27 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Deinze outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Deinze attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 43% | Draw 25% | Deinze 32%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Deinze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 65%, Deinze 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RSC Anderlecht II 1.23 PPG, Deinze 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deinze win broke the near-deadlock. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.