K. Lierse S.K. 2-2 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as K. Lierse S.K. welcome SK Beveren to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K. at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — K. Lierse S.K. at 1.10 PPG versus SK Beveren's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SK Beveren have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for K. Lierse S.K..
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–3 with SK Beveren winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SK Beveren have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 64% versus SK Beveren 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 71% | SK Beveren 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 0.78 xG and SK Beveren 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.927 / defence 1.048 | SK Beveren attack 0.873 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.345. SK Beveren's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 K. Lierse S.K. games / 32 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 24% | Draw 30% | SK Beveren 47%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | SK Beveren 2.13. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 50% | SK Beveren 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 24% | Draw 30% | SK Beveren 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 0.78 / SK Beveren 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.927 / def 1.048 | SK Beveren attack 0.873 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SK Beveren xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
K. Lierse S.K. 2 - 2 SK Beveren.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 24% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
Record (4 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 0W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 4W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 0.93x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
24%
4.24
30%
3.37
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.01
1.23
SK Beveren xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
7%
14.50
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 16.4 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.23 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 42 games, going 17W 6D 19L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.90 PPG from 42 outings (23W 11D 8L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 10W 1D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.07 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 17W 6D 19L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 23W 11D 8L in their last 42 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.48 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.52 PPG.
Have K. Lierse S.K. or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
K. Lierse S.K. have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
9
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, SK Beveren have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 67%, SK Beveren 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for K. Lierse S.K. and 62% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 38%; SK Beveren in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 48% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 62% of SK Beveren's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. and SK Beveren finished level at 2-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 0.78 xG and SK Beveren 1.23 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against SK Beveren attack 0.87 / defence 0.73, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 24% | Draw 30% | SK Beveren 47%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 71%, SK Beveren 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.