Patro Eisden 0-3 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem meet at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Patro Eisden have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden at Patrostadion this season: 3W 1D 1L from 5 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zulte Waregem's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Patro Eisden, 2.00 for Zulte Waregem — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Patro Eisden register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Zulte Waregem in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Patro Eisden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 64% versus Zulte Waregem 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 54% | Zulte Waregem 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.17 xG and Zulte Waregem 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.033 / defence 1.087 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.362 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.376. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Patro Eisden games / 11 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 21% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 57%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Zulte Waregem 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 80% | Zulte Waregem 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 21% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Patro Eisden 1.17 / Zulte Waregem 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.033 / def 1.087 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.362 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Zulte Waregem xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Patro Eisden 0 - 3 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 21% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Patro Eisden's attack at 1.03x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.36x) against Patro Eisden's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
21%
4.70
21%
4.71
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
3.20
2.04
Zulte Waregem xG
4.70
21%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
13%
7.67
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
3%
36.01
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 2.04 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Patro Eisden come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 4D 2L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zulte Waregem sit at 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Patro Eisden against 1.82 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Patro Eisden's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Zulte Waregem have taken 2.60 points per game from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.82 PPG overall record — Zulte Waregem travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.82 scored and 1.00 conceded. Zulte Waregem's attacking output running into Patro Eisden's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Patro Eisden have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 games (1.73 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 2.00 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Zulte Waregem have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 0-3 on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Patro Eisden have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 0, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-2 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Patro Eisden, 60% for Zulte Waregem — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Patro Eisden and 80% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Patro Eisden's games and 60% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Patro Eisden's matches and 80% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Patro Eisden and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zulte Waregem run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Patro Eisden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Patro Eisden 0-3 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.17 xG and Zulte Waregem 2.04 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Patro Eisden fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Zulte Waregem outscored their 2.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.36 / defence 0.94, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 21% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 57%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 54%, Zulte Waregem 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.73 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.