TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours TSV Hartberg (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as TSV Hartberg face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, TSV Hartberg have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, SCR Altach have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. TSV Hartberg's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours TSV Hartberg, who have won 3 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against SCR Altach — SCR Altach have 0 wins, with 4 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended TSV Hartberg 2–2 SCR Altach — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives TSV Hartberg an edge — 3 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 48% | SCR Altach 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG and SCR Altach 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.050 / defence 0.953 | SCR Altach attack 0.891 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.278. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 40 games and SCR Altach's last 40.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 28%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.18 | Draw 3.83 | SCR Altach 3.57. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 60% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.47 / SCR Altach 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.050 / def 0.953 | SCR Altach attack 0.891 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
SCR Altach xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach part of?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 46% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (1.05) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.89x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 40 games and SCR Altach's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.83
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.55
1.08
SCR Altach xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.08 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 17D 15L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 1.00 PPG from 50 outings (11W 17D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
TSV Hartberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 9W 7D 7L across their last 23 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.74 points per game from their last 23 away games (4W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.96 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs SCR Altach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 17D 15L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 11W 17D 22L in their last 50 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or SCR Altach away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.48 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
TSV Hartberg have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won TSV Hartberg 3-0 SCR Altach on 8 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
5
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 5, SCR Altach have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: TSV Hartberg 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 65%, SCR Altach 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (TSV Hartberg) and 44% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 30% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 44% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 61% of SCR Altach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at TSV Hartberg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 19, as TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG and SCR Altach 1.08 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SCR Altach landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against SCR Altach attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 28%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 48%, SCR Altach 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SCR Altach's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.