🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Wolfsberger AC (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC BW Linz face Wolfsberger AC.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FC BW Linz host Wolfsberger AC at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Guide

FC BW Linz — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wolfsberger AC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Wolfsberger AC's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC BW Linz's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC BW Linz, 4 for Wolfsberger AC and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Wolfsberger AC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

FC BW Linz trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Wolfsberger AC trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 50% versus Wolfsberger AC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 52% | Wolfsberger AC 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.34 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.956 / defence 1.145 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.076 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.208. Data: 40 FC BW Linz games / 40 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 34% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 41%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 40% | Wolfsberger AC 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights