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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK meet at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's home record at Stadion Hartberg: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Grazer AK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Grazer AK's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward TSV Hartberg. A 0.50 PPG lead over Grazer AK (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Grazer AK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — TSV Hartberg lead 2W to 0W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 55% versus Grazer AK 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 47% | Grazer AK 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.43 xG and Grazer AK 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.928 / defence 0.897 | Grazer AK attack 0.978 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.160. Data: 41 TSV Hartberg games / 41 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 27%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Grazer AK 3.70. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 60% | Grazer AK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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