TSV Hartberg 1-0 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK meet at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's home record at Stadion Hartberg: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grazer AK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward TSV Hartberg. A 0.50 PPG lead over Grazer AK (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Grazer AK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — TSV Hartberg lead 2W to 0W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 55% versus Grazer AK 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 47% | Grazer AK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.43 xG and Grazer AK 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.928 / defence 0.897 | Grazer AK attack 0.978 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.160. Data: 41 TSV Hartberg games / 41 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 27%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Grazer AK 3.70. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 60% | Grazer AK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.43 / Grazer AK 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.928 / def 0.897 | Grazer AK attack 0.978 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Grazer AK xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 0 Grazer AK.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 46% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK?
Record (5 meetings): TSV Hartberg 2W | Draws 3 | Grazer AK 0W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.93x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Grazer AK's attack (0.98x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.68
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.44
1.02
Grazer AK xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.02 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 18D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grazer AK sit at 0.88 PPG from 51 outings (8W 21D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 9W 8D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Grazer AK have taken 0.75 points per game from 24 outings (3W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.06 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 18D 15L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 8W 21D 22L in their last 51 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Grazer AK away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.46 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 0-3 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
0
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK?
From 6 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 3, Grazer AK have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 62%, Grazer AK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (TSV Hartberg) and 62% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: Grazer AK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Grazer AK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of TSV Hartberg's games and 67% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 62% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as TSV Hartberg edge out Grazer AK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Grazer AK 1-0 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.43 xG and Grazer AK 1.02 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grazer AK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Grazer AK attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 27%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 47%, Grazer AK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Grazer AK's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.