SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Austria Vienna travel to Cashpoint-Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach at Cashpoint-Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Austria Vienna — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, SCR Altach have won 2, Austria Vienna 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Austria Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Austria Vienna trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 45% versus Austria Vienna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 39% | Austria Vienna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.972 / defence 0.879 | Austria Vienna attack 1.242 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.160. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 SCR Altach games / 41 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 35% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Vienna 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 50% | Austria Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 35% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG SCR Altach 1.22 / Austria Vienna 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.972 / def 0.879 | Austria Vienna attack 1.242 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Austria Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
SCR Altach 2 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 35% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Record (9 meetings): SCR Altach 2W | Draws 3 | Austria Vienna 4W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.97) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.63
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.49
1.27
Austria Vienna xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.27 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 51 games, going 11W 18D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.80 PPG from 51 outings (28W 8D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 6W 12D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.72 points per game from 25 outings (13W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.49 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 11W 18D 22L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 28W 8D 15L in their last 51 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.20 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 56%, Austria Vienna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (SCR Altach) and 48% (Austria Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SCR Altach's games and 56% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of SCR Altach's recent games and 48% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.27 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against Austria Vienna attack 1.24 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 35% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 39%, Austria Vienna 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.