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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Austria Vienna travel to Cashpoint-Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SCR Altach at Cashpoint-Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Austria Vienna — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, SCR Altach have won 2, Austria Vienna 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Austria Vienna winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SCR Altach trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Austria Vienna trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 45% versus Austria Vienna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 39% | Austria Vienna 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.972 / defence 0.879 | Austria Vienna attack 1.242 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.160. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 SCR Altach games / 41 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 35% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Vienna 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 50% | Austria Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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