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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

FC BW Linz make the trip to Cashpoint-Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form

SCR Altach (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SCR Altach's home record at Cashpoint-Arena: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.

FC BW Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC BW Linz's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for SCR Altach against 0.70 for FC BW Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: SCR Altach 1W, FC BW Linz 3W, 3D.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with FC BW Linz winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

SCR Altach — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

FC BW Linz — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 47% versus FC BW Linz 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | FC BW Linz 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.62 xG and FC BW Linz 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.017 / defence 0.925 | FC BW Linz attack 0.818 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.313. Data: 39 SCR Altach games / 39 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 25% | FC BW Linz 23%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | FC BW Linz 4.35. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 60% | FC BW Linz 40%.

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