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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.

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Match Analysis

Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.

TSV Hartberg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour TSV Hartberg — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Rapid Vienna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Rapid Vienna trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

TSV Hartberg trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 60% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 54% | TSV Hartberg 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.28 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.949 / defence 1.080 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.077 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.352. Data: 39 Rapid Vienna games / 39 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 31% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 44%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | TSV Hartberg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 60% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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