Rapid Vienna 1-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour TSV Hartberg — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Rapid Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 60% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 54% | TSV Hartberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.28 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.949 / defence 1.080 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.077 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.352. Data: 39 Rapid Vienna games / 39 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 31% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 44%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | TSV Hartberg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 60% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 31% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.28 / TSV Hartberg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.949 / def 1.080 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.077 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.57
TSV Hartberg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 31% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (7 meetings): Rapid Vienna 3W | Draws 0 | TSV Hartberg 4W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 0.95x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
31%
3.24
25%
4.01
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.85
1.57
TSV Hartberg xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
6%
15.59
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.57 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 50 games, going 19W 12D 19L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.40 PPG from 50 outings (18W 16D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.38 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 13W 3D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.46 points per game from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.32 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 19W 12D 19L in their last 50 games (1.38 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 16D 16L in their last 50 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.75 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 46%, TSV Hartberg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Rapid Vienna) and 50% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 38%; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 46% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.28 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.08 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 31% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 44%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 54%, TSV Hartberg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.38 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.