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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz encounter.

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Match Analysis

WSG Wattens host Sturm Graz at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: WSG Wattens 1.20 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 9 encounters against WSG Wattens's 1 victories.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with WSG Wattens winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 56% versus Sturm Graz 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 52% | Sturm Graz 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.33 xG and Sturm Graz 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.010 / defence 1.143 | Sturm Graz attack 1.182 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.278. Data: 40 WSG Wattens games / 40 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 30% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 47%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Sturm Graz 2.13. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 80% | Sturm Graz 50% BTTS from recent games.

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