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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

SCR Altach (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. TSV Hartberg's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Across 9 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 5 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The historical record gives TSV Hartberg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 48% | SCR Altach 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG and SCR Altach 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.050 / defence 0.953 | SCR Altach attack 0.891 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.278. Data: 40 TSV Hartberg games / 40 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 28%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | SCR Altach 3.57. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 60% | SCR Altach 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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