FC Eindhoven 0-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Eindhoven (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Eindhoven face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees FC OSS travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 November 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for FC Eindhoven, 1 for FC OSS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
FC OSS in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 55% versus FC OSS 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 43% | FC OSS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.33 xG and FC OSS 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.841 / defence 0.937 | FC OSS attack 0.598 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.387. Data: 53 FC Eindhoven games / 53 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | FC OSS 4.76. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 50% | FC OSS 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.33 / FC OSS 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.841 / def 0.937 | FC OSS attack 0.598 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.78
FC OSS xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 November 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS part of?
FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 49% chance of winning, FC OSS a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both FC Eindhoven and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
Record (4 meetings): FC Eindhoven 3W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.84) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.36
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.10
0.78
FC OSS xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 0.78 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 20W 16D 17L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 12W 8D 33L from 53 games, 0.83 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 4W 5D 17L from 26 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.04 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 20W 16D 17L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 8D 33L in their last 53 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or FC OSS away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.58 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC OSS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when FC Eindhoven won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 5, FC OSS have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when FC OSS 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 54%, FC OSS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC Eindhoven) and 54% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 50% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 54% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and FC OSS tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Eindhoven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven and FC OSS finished level at 0-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.33 xG and FC OSS 0.78 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against FC OSS attack 0.60 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 21%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 43%, FC OSS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.