FC OSS 0-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates De Graafschap at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs De Graafschap encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

FC OSS and De Graafschap meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

FC OSS (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, FC OSS have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC OSS are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

De Graafschap have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, De Graafschap have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

De Graafschap arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, De Graafschap edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2023, ended FC OSS 3–3 De Graafschap — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

FC OSS — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

De Graafschap — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 47% versus De Graafschap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 57% | De Graafschap 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.29 xG and De Graafschap 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.730 / defence 1.346 | De Graafschap attack 0.933 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.393. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. FC OSS's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing De Graafschap's projected output up. Data: built from FC OSS's last 54 games and De Graafschap's last 53.

Result probabilities: FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 48%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.59 | Draw 4.06 | De Graafschap 2.10. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.29 / 1.75) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC OSS's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC OSS 30% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 70% (last 10 away games).

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