Cambuur 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Roda at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cambuur face Roda.

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Analysis

Roda make the trip to Cambuur Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 November 2023 at 13:30 UK time.

Current Form

Cambuur's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Cambuur at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Roda (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Roda have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Cambuur against 1.90 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cambuur's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) — Cambuur have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading Data

Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 50% versus Roda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 69% | Roda 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.45 xG and Roda 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.175 / defence 1.307 | Roda attack 0.927 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.370. Roda bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Cambuur's projected output down. Cambuur's defence rating of 1.307 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Roda's projected output up. Data: built from Cambuur's last 14 games and Roda's last 52.

Result probabilities: Cambuur 32% | Draw 26% | Roda 42%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.08 | Draw 3.84 | Roda 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.45 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cambuur's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambuur 60% (last 10 home games) | Roda 60% (last 10 away games).

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