ADO Den Haag 6-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Utrecht make the trip to Bingoal Stadion to face ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Monday 27 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, ADO Den Haag have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Utrecht's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong Utrecht away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in ADO Den Haag's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, ADO Den Haag edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Jan 2023, ended ADO Den Haag 1–1 Jong Utrecht — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
ADO Den Haag half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 65% versus Jong Utrecht 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 62% | Jong Utrecht 42%). Note also that Jong Utrecht surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while ADO Den Haag recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.03 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.026 / defence 1.122 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.674 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.387. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing ADO Den Haag's projected output up. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.674 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from ADO Den Haag's last 53 games and Jong Utrecht's last 52.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 60% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 18%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.68 | Draw 4.53 | Jong Utrecht 5.45. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ADO Den Haag 90% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 15 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 27 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 60% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG ADO Den Haag 2.03 / Jong Utrecht 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.026 / def 1.122 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.674 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jong Utrecht xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht FAQs
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 27 November 2023 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?
ADO Den Haag 6 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 60% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
ADO Den Haag's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.67x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from ADO Den Haag's last 53 games and Jong Utrecht's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.53
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.08
1.05
Jong Utrecht xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
13%
7.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
2%
41.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.05 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 20W 18D 14L from 52 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 30L across 52 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 8W 8D 9L from their last 25 home games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 2W 4D 19L across their last 25 away games, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.92 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
ADO Den Haag (Home) vs Jong Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 20W 18D 14L in their last 52 games (1.50 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 11D 30L in their last 52 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Jong Utrecht away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.28 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 17 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won ADO Den Haag 6-0 Jong Utrecht on 27 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ADO Den Haag
6
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, ADO Den Haag have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2026: ADO Den Haag 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 72%, Jong Utrecht 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for ADO Den Haag and 56% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Jong Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of ADO Den Haag's games and 52% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 56% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Jong Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 80% of Jong Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Jong Utrecht 6-0 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.03 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.05 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Utrecht landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.67 / defence 1.29, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 60% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 18%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 62%, Jong Utrecht 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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