De Graafschap 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 4 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dordrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.70 for Dordrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: De Graafschap 1W, Dordrecht 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 4–0 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 54% versus Dordrecht 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 59% | Dordrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.44 xG and Dordrecht 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.907 / defence 0.693 | Dordrecht attack 1.035 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.360. De Graafschap's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 De Graafschap games / 54 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 47% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Dordrecht 4.00. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 40% | Dordrecht 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 4 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 47% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG De Graafschap 1.44 / Dordrecht 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.907 / def 0.693 | Dordrecht attack 1.035 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Dordrecht xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 4 December 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
De Graafschap 1 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 47% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both De Graafschap and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.91) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (1.03x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.57
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.42
0.97
Dordrecht xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
6%
16.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.97 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 54 games, going 24W 9D 21L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.13 PPG from 54 outings (15W 16D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.13 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 14W 4D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (5W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.41 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 24W 9D 21L in their last 54 games (1.50 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 15W 16D 23L in their last 54 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Dordrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.84 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
5
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Dordrecht have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 40%, Dordrecht 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (De Graafschap) and 52% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 64% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of De Graafschap's recent games and 52% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Dordrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 15, as De Graafschap and Dordrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.44 xG and Dordrecht 0.97 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.91 / defence 0.69 against Dordrecht attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 47% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 25%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 59%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.50 PPG, Dordrecht 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.