VVV Venlo 1-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Willem II travel to Covebo Stadion - De Koel - to take on VVV Venlo in Eerste Divisie (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Friday 17 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, VVV Venlo have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II — last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Willem II away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Willem II's 2.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of VVV Venlo's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, VVV Venlo have won 1, Willem II 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended VVV Venlo 2–2 Willem II — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VVV Venlo trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Willem II trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 68% and Willem II 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 57% | Willem II 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: VVV Venlo surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Willem II surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while VVV Venlo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.01 xG and Willem II 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 1.036 / defence 1.160 | Willem II attack 0.799 / defence 0.624. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.354. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.624, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling VVV Venlo's projected output down. Willem II's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Data: built from VVV Venlo's last 52 games and Willem II's last 52.
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 28% | Draw 31% | Willem II 40%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.54 | Draw 3.19 | Willem II 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: VVV Venlo 80% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 15 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 17 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 28% | Draw 31% | Willem II 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG VVV Venlo 1.01 / Willem II 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 1.036 / def 1.160 | Willem II attack 0.799 / def 0.624 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Willem II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Willem II xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VVV Venlo vs Willem II FAQs
What time does VVV Venlo vs Willem II kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Willem II kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 17 November 2023 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
VVV Venlo 1 - 3 Willem II.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Willem II part of?
VVV Venlo vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 28% chance of winning, Willem II a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both VVV Venlo and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will VVV Venlo vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 1.04x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VVV Venlo's last 52 games and Willem II's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
28%
3.54
31%
3.19
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.26
1.25
Willem II xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.39
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VVV Venlo vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.25 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 21W 18D 15L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Willem II's form line: 28W 14D 12L from 54 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.50 PPG, Willem II on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 26 home games (9W 10D 7L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 8W 11D 7L from their last 26 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.76 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Willem II in 61%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Willem II
Blended
VVV Venlo (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VVV Venlo
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ VVV Venlo vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are VVV Venlo and Willem II in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 21W 18D 15L in their last 54 games (1.50 PPG), while Willem II have gone 28W 14D 12L in their last 54 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Willem II away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.42 PPG; Willem II away: 1.35 PPG.
Have VVV Venlo or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
VVV Venlo have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 23 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Willem II have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ VVV Venlo vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Willem II?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, VVV Venlo have won 1, Willem II have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 January 2026: Willem II 2-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 69%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (VVV Venlo) and 50% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Willem II in 31%; Willem II in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VVV Venlo vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VVV Venlo and Willem II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of VVV Venlo's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VVV Venlo and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 50% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 77% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat VVV Venlo 1-3 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.01 xG and Willem II 1.25 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Willem II attack 0.80 / defence 0.62, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 28% | Draw 31% | Willem II 40%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 57%, Willem II 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.50 PPG, Willem II 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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