Groningen 2-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Groningen face FC Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and FC Eindhoven meet at Euroborg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Groningen's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Groningen have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Eindhoven away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Groningen against 1.30 for FC Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Groningen — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 50% versus FC Eindhoven 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | FC Eindhoven 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Groningen surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while FC Eindhoven have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.09 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.834 / defence 0.975 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.992 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.384. Data: built from Groningen's last 14 games and FC Eindhoven's last 52.
Result probabilities: Groningen 29% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 41%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.47 | Draw 3.30 | FC Eindhoven 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Groningen 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Eindhoven 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 16 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 29% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Groningen 1.09 / FC Eindhoven 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.834 / def 0.975 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.992 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Eindhoven xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs FC Eindhoven FAQs
What time does Groningen vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Groningen vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs FC Eindhoven?
Groningen 2 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Groningen vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Groningen vs FC Eindhoven is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 16) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 29% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Groningen and FC Eindhoven will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Groningen vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.83) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.99x) against Groningen's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 14 games and FC Eindhoven's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
29%
3.47
30%
3.30
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.43
1.34
FC Eindhoven xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
8%
13.22
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs FC Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Groningen and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Groningen and 1.34 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Groningen come into this having played 48 games, going 8W 10D 30L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.38 PPG from 48 outings (17W 15D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Groningen's home form reads 5W 6D 13L across their last 24 home games, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.31 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Groningen (Home) vs FC Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Groningen vs FC Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 8W 10D 30L in their last 48 games (0.71 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 15D 16L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.88 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Groningen and FC Eindhoven, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Groningen
0
Draws
0
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs FC Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and FC Eindhoven?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: FC Eindhoven 0-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and FC Eindhoven?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 46%, FC Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Groningen) and 46% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs FC Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and FC Eindhoven matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Groningen's recent matches and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and FC Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Groningen's recent games and 46% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and FC Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Groningen's recent matches and 42% of FC Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.09 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.34 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 29% | Draw 30% | FC Eindhoven 41%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 58%, FC Eindhoven 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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