De Graafschap 2-3 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Cambuur at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cambuur — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.70 PPG versus Cambuur's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 51% versus Cambuur 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 57% | Cambuur 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.62 xG and Cambuur 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.890 / defence 0.688 | Cambuur attack 1.444 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.376. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.444 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. De Graafschap's defence rating of 0.688 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 De Graafschap games / 17 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 43% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 31%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Cambuur 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Cambuur 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 43% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG De Graafschap 1.62 / Cambuur 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.890 / def 0.688 | Cambuur attack 1.444 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Cambuur xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Cambuur kick off?
De Graafschap vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 December 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Cambuur?
De Graafschap 2 - 3 Cambuur.
Where is De Graafschap vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Cambuur part of?
De Graafschap vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 43% chance of winning, Cambuur a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both De Graafschap and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Cambuur in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Cambuur (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.89) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.86
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.99
1.37
Cambuur xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
6%
16.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.37 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap come into this having played 51 games, going 24W 9D 18L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.92 PPG from 51 outings (13W 8D 30L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
De Graafschap's home form reads 14W 4D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 0.92 points per game from 25 outings (6W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.31 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Cambuur in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 24W 9D 18L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 13W 8D 30L in their last 51 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Cambuur away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.84 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.92 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cambuur in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
0
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, Cambuur have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when De Graafschap 3-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 40%, Cambuur 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (De Graafschap) and 64% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 28% of games; Cambuur in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 60% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of De Graafschap's recent games and 64% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Cambuur tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat De Graafschap 2-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.62 xG and Cambuur 1.37 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cambuur outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.89 / defence 0.69 against Cambuur attack 1.44 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 43% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 31%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 57%, Cambuur 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambuur's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Cambuur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.