Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. make the trip to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to face Wuhan Three Towns in Super League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Friday 15 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Wuhan Three Towns at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Wuhan Three Towns's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 70% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 2 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Wuhan Three Towns 1–2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a Shijiazhuang Y. J. win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 59% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 66% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.32 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.170 / defence 1.063 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.971 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.231. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output up. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 58 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 58.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Draw 20% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 19%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.66 | Draw 4.88 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5.17. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.32 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 70% (last 10 home games) | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Draw 20% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 2.32 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.170 / def 1.063 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.971 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 15 September 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 60% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating (1.17) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.97x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 58 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.88
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.59
1.27
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
10%
10.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
2%
52.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.27 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 58 games, going 35W 12D 11L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.28 PPG from 58 outings (19W 17D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 16W 6D 6L across their last 28 home games, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.29 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 35W 12D 11L in their last 58 games (2.02 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 17D 22L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.93 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J., the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 12 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-4 Wuhan Three Towns on 4 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 July 2024: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 61%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Wuhan Three Towns and 68% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 64% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 68% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 89% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 2.32 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.17 / defence 1.06 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.97 / defence 1.28, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Draw 20% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 19%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 66%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.