Beijing Guoan 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beijing Guoan face Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Shanghai Shenhua at Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 19 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Beijing Guoan have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Shanghai Shenhua's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beijing Guoan at 1.70 PPG versus Shanghai Shenhua's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Beijing Guoan's games and 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Beijing Guoan have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended Beijing Guoan 1–1 Shanghai Shenhua — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Shanghai Shenhua in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus Shanghai Shenhua 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%). Note also that Shanghai Shenhua surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Beijing Guoan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.59 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.322 / defence 0.905 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.993 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.214. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.322 — their 1.59 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Shanghai Shenhua bring a tight defence (rating 0.792, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Beijing Guoan's projected output down. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 56 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 56.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 47% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 25%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.11 | Draw 3.56 | Shanghai Shenhua 4.08. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 47% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.59 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.322 / def 0.905 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.993 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Shanghai Shenhua xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 47% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 56 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.56
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.68
1.09
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
5%
20.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.09 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 26W 15D 15L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 26W 16D 14L from 56 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.66 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 28 home games (14W 8D 6L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 12W 9D 7L from their last 28 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.21 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Shanghai Shenhua (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 15D 15L in their last 56 games (1.66 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 26W 16D 14L in their last 56 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.79 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 18 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Aug 2026, when Beijing Guoan won Shanghai Shenhua 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 August 2026: Shanghai Shenhua 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 57%, Shanghai Shenhua 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Beijing Guoan) and 43% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Beijing Guoan's games and 57% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 43% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 68% of Shanghai Shenhua's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Shanghai Shenhua 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.59 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.09 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.32 / defence 0.91 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.99 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 47% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 25%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Shanghai Shenhua 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.66 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.