Henan Jianye 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Henan Jianye face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Tianjin Teda at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Henan Jianye stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Tianjin Teda — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 0.80 PPG versus Tianjin Teda's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Henan Jianye's games and 70% of Tianjin Teda's (from Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Henan Jianye, 2 for Tianjin Teda and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Henan Jianye 0–1 Tianjin Teda — a Tianjin Teda win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 77%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 52% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 46% | Tianjin Teda 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.02 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.836 / defence 0.908 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.939 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.238. Tianjin Teda bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Henan Jianye's projected output down. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 54 games and Tianjin Teda's last 54.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 32% | Draw 34% | Tianjin Teda 34%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.10 | Draw 2.96 | Tianjin Teda 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 60% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 22 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 32% | Draw 34% | Tianjin Teda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Henan Jianye 1.02 / Tianjin Teda 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.836 / def 0.908 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.939 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Tianjin Teda xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Henan Jianye 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 22) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 32% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.84) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 54 games and Tianjin Teda's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
32%
3.10
34%
2.96
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.08
1.06
Tianjin Teda xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.06 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 20W 15D 19L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 20W 20D 14L from 54 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.39 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 7D 7L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 8D 8L from their last 26 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.31 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 20W 15D 19L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 20D 14L in their last 54 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.65 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
7
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Henan Jianye 0-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 54%, Tianjin Teda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Henan Jianye) and 38% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 31%; Henan Jianye have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 54% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 38% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 76% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Henan Jianye defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.02 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.06 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.84 / defence 0.91 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.79, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 32% | Draw 34% | Tianjin Teda 34%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 46%, Tianjin Teda 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.39 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.