Al-Fayha 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 5D 3L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.70 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Al-Fayha's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 53% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 49% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.88 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.540 / defence 0.715 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.364 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.319. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.540 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.715 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Al-Fayha games / 57 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 26% | Draw 29% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 26% | Draw 29% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Fayha 0.88 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.540 / def 0.715 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.364 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 March 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Fayha 0 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 26% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.54x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.36x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
26%
3.90
29%
3.50
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.17
1.29
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.7 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.29 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 15W 21D 21L from 57 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 47W 6D 4L across 57 games — 2.58 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 6W 12D 10L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 21W 4D 3L across 28 trips, a 2.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.96 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 15W 21D 21L in their last 57 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 47W 6D 4L in their last 57 (2.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.07 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 20 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 39%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Al-Fayha) and 79% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 64% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of Al-Fayha's matches and 79% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fayha 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.88 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.54 / defence 0.71 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.36 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 26% | Draw 29% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 49%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.