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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 6 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 2.20 PPG versus Al-Ittihad FC's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% versus Al-Ittihad FC 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% | Al-Ittihad FC 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.19 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.911 / defence 0.730 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.213 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.332. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 57 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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