Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Ittihad FC.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Thursday 6 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 2.20 PPG versus Al-Ittihad FC's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–3 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% versus Al-Ittihad FC 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% | Al-Ittihad FC 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.19 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.911 / defence 0.730 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.213 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.332. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.213, which lifts their away xG to 1.18. Al-Qadisiyah FC have a tight defence (rating 0.730), which is pulling Al-Ittihad FC's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 23 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 57.

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.75 | Draw 3.59 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.79. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% and Al-Ittihad FC 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 20% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 70% (last 10 away games).

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