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Poisson rates Al-Raed at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Raed encounter.

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Full Analysis

King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Al Wehda Club versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Thursday 6 March 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Wehda Club have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 1W 2D 7L at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Raed (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Raed away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Raed, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Al-Raed have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Al Wehda Club half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 60% versus Al-Raed 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 61% | Al-Raed 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.49 xG and Al-Raed 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.857 / defence 1.448 | Al-Raed attack 1.047 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.328. Data: 57 Al Wehda Club games / 57 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 29% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 50%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Raed 2.00. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 60% | Al-Raed 50% BTTS from recent games.

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