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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Friday 11 March 2022

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 18 fixtures on Friday 11 March 2022. Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra led the list at 74% in the Pro League. The shortlist runs from 74% down to 56%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

The shortlist spans eight different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 18 fixtures on this list that have since finished, seven landed the under 2.5 goals market — 39%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates 74%

Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 65%

Pro League · Saudi-Arabia 72%

✓ Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 65%

K League 1 · South-Korea 72%

Under 2.5 72% BTTS No 64%

Championship · England 71%

Under 2.5 71% BTTS No 64%

League Two · England 71%

Under 2.5 71% BTTS No 61%

K League 1 · South-Korea 70%

Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 62%

Premier Division · Ireland 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 63%

Serie B · Italy 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 55%

Eerste Divisie · Netherlands 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#10

Primera División · Chile 63%

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 55%

#11

Ekstraklasa · Poland 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#12

Ekstraklasa · Poland 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 53%

#13

Premier Division · Ireland 61%

#14

2. Bundesliga · Germany 60%

#15

Eerste Divisie · Netherlands 60%

Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 53%

#16

Pro League · Saudi-Arabia 58%

Under 2.5 58% BTTS No 54%

#17

Premier Division · Ireland 57%

#18

Eerste Divisie · Netherlands 56%

Showing top 18 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Friday 11 March 2022?

18 fixtures met the criteria, led by Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Dhafra at 74% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.