Al-Fayha 1-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fayha and Al Baten meet at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 March 2022 at 14:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Baten (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Baten have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Al-Fayha, 0.90 for Al Baten — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Fayha 0W, Al Baten 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Al Baten winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Baten — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 41% versus Al Baten 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 18% | Al Baten 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.13 xG and Al Baten 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.673 / defence 0.864 | Al Baten attack 0.718 / defence 1.417. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.158. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.417 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Al-Fayha games / 23 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 45% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Al Baten 4.35. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Al Baten's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 20% | Al Baten 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 45% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Al-Fayha 1.13 / Al Baten 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.673 / def 0.864 | Al Baten attack 0.718 / def 1.417 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Al Baten xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Baten kicked off at 14:45 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Baten?
Al-Fayha 1 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 45% chance of winning, Al Baten a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Baten?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Baten in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Al Baten (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.67x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.72x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.14
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.85
0.72
Al Baten xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.72 for Al Baten, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 6W 9D 7L from 22 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 10L across 22 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.00 for Al Baten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 5W 4D 1L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Baten's away record stands at 1W 3D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.95 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 6W 9D 7L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.90 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al Baten in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Baten have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2023, when Al Baten 0-0 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Al-Fayha) and 40% (Al Baten) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Al-Fayha and 40% for Al Baten.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Baten in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 40% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 40% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al Baten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Baten 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.13 xG and Al Baten 0.72 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.67 / defence 0.86 against Al Baten attack 0.72 / defence 1.42, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 45% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 23%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 18%, Al Baten 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Baten's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.23 PPG, Al Baten 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.