Den Bosch 3-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host MVV at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Den Bosch at 0.20 PPG versus MVV's 0.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Den Bosch have won 1, MVV 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Den Bosch winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
MVV in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 39% versus MVV 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 54% | MVV 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.03 xG and MVV 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.628 / defence 1.234 | MVV attack 0.709 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.435. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.628 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Den Bosch games / 28 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 30% | Draw 30% | MVV 41%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | MVV 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, MVV are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 30% | MVV 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 30% | Draw 30% | MVV 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Den Bosch 1.03 / MVV 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.628 / def 1.234 | MVV attack 0.709 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: MVV (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.25
MVV xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs MVV kick off?
Den Bosch vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Den Bosch 3 - 1 MVV.
Where is Den Bosch vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs MVV part of?
Den Bosch vs MVV is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 30% chance of winning, MVV a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Den Bosch and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
Record (1 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | MVV 0W.
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. MVV (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.63x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
30%
3.39
30%
3.38
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.28
1.25
MVV xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.25 for MVV, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 8W 3D 17L from 28 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 18L across 28 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 0.96 PPG, MVV on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 6W 0D 7L from 13 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
MVV's away record stands at 3W 0D 10L across 13 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.00 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 8W 3D 17L in their last 28 games (0.96 PPG), while MVV have gone 8W 2D 18L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or MVV away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.38 PPG; MVV away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 4, MVV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-2 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 31%, MVV 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Den Bosch) and 62% (MVV).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 46% of games; MVV in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 46% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Den Bosch's recent games and 62% of MVV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and MVV tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, MVV in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat MVV 3-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.03 xG and MVV 1.25 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.63 / defence 1.23 against MVV attack 0.71 / defence 1.35, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 30% | Draw 30% | MVV 41%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 54%, MVV 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.96 PPG, MVV 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.