Shelbourne 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tolka Park to face Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 11 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Dundalk have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.71 xG and Dundalk 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.615 / defence 1.314 | Dundalk attack 0.992 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.000. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.615 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Shelbourne games / 40 Dundalk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 20% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 51%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | Dundalk 1.96. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 20% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Shelbourne 0.71 / Dundalk 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.615 / def 1.314 | Dundalk attack 0.992 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Dundalk xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Dundalk kick off?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Shelbourne vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Dundalk part of?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 20% chance of winning, Dundalk a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Shelbourne and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Dundalk away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.99x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (4/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
20%
5.01
29%
3.39
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.01
1.30
Dundalk xG
5.01
20%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
5%
18.44
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 17.4 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.30 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
3
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, Dundalk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shelbourne and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and Dundalk finished level at 1-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.71 xG and Dundalk 1.30 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.61 / defence 1.31 against Dundalk attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 4/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 20% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 51%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.