Daegu FC 3-1 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Seongnam FC meet at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 March 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Daegu FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at DGB Daegu Bank Park this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Seongnam FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Daegu FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Seongnam FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus Seongnam FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Seongnam FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.06 xG and Seongnam FC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.933 / defence 1.052 | Seongnam FC attack 0.881 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 0.950 / away 0.934. Data: 37 Daegu FC games / 37 Seongnam FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 31% | Seongnam FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Seongnam FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daegu FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 60% | Seongnam FC 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 31% | Seongnam FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Daegu FC 1.06 / Seongnam FC 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.933 / def 1.052 | Seongnam FC attack 0.881 / def 1.195 | league avg home 0.950 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Seongnam FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 10:00 on Friday 11 March 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Daegu FC 3 - 1 Seongnam FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 40% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Daegu FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (3 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 2 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Daegu FC and Seongnam FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.93) and Seongnam FC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.88x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
40%
2.53
31%
3.19
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.92
0.86
Seongnam FC xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.86 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daegu FC come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 10D 13L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Seongnam FC sit at 1.16 PPG from 38 outings (11W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.16 for Seongnam FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Daegu FC's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Seongnam FC have taken 0.79 points per game from 19 outings (3W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.89 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Seongnam FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
4
Draws
0
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Seongnam FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2022, when Seongnam FC 4-4 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Seongnam FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 53%, Seongnam FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Daegu FC) and 53% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Seongnam FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 47% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Daegu FC's recent games and 53% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Seongnam FC 3-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.06 xG and Seongnam FC 0.86 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Seongnam FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 40% | Draw 31% | Seongnam FC 29%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Seongnam FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.45 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.