Likely Draw Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest predicted draw probability — Friday 1 May 2026
Our prediction model uses each team's attack and defence strengths to simulate every possible scoreline. The draw probability sums all equal-score outcomes (0–0, 1–1, 2–2, etc.) from the score matrix. Fixtures at the top of this list show the highest statistical likelihood of ending level — useful for targeting the match draw market. Only fixtures with a predicted draw probability of 25 %+ are shown.
The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Friday 1 May 2026. Muangthong United vs BG Pathum United led the list at 35% in the Thai League 1. The shortlist runs from 35% down to 28%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
Serie B supplies four of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, six landed the draw market — 30%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Thai League 1 · Thailand
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Serie A · Italy
Premier Division · Ireland
Serie B · Italy
Süper Lig · Turkey
Serie B · Italy
Serie B · Italy
Serie B · Italy
Premier Division · Ireland
Süper Lig · Turkey
Serie B · Italy
Serie B · Italy
Serie B · Italy
Super League · China
Serie B · Italy
Serie B · Italy
Premier Division · Ireland
Super League · China
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Showing top 20 fixtures by predicted draw probability (≥ 25%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Likely Draw — common questions
What does the Likely Draw market mean?
Likely Draw settles on whether a match finishes level. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate draw probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The draw probability shown here is the sum of every level scoreline — 0–0, 1–1, 2–2 and beyond — in the model's score matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Likely Draw on Friday 1 May 2026?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Muangthong United vs BG Pathum United at 35% draw probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 25% or higher draw probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these draw predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.