Sampdoria 1-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sudtirol's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Sampdoria's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sudtirol's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Sudtirol have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Sampdoria's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Sudtirol winning.
It is worth noting that Sudtirol have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 50% versus Sudtirol 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 39% | Sudtirol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.38 xG and Sudtirol 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.811 / defence 1.074 | Sudtirol attack 1.023 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.084. Sudtirol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Sampdoria games / 74 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 39% | Draw 31% | Sudtirol 30%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Sudtirol 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Sudtirol lead the H2H ledger, but Sampdoria carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 40% | Sudtirol 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 39% | Draw 31% | Sudtirol 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Sampdoria 1.38 / Sudtirol 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.811 / def 1.074 | Sudtirol attack 1.023 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sudtirol xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Sudtirol kick off?
Sampdoria vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol part of?
Sampdoria vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 39% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sampdoria and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
Record (5 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 4W.
What form are Sampdoria and Sudtirol in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.81) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.02x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.20
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.57
1.19
Sudtirol xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.19 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sampdoria come into this having played 74 games, going 19W 27D 28L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.16 PPG from 74 outings (20W 26D 28L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.16 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sampdoria's home form reads 15W 12D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.08 points per game from 37 outings (9W 13D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.18 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 19W 27D 28L in their last 74 games (1.14 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 20W 26D 28L in their last 74 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Sudtirol away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.54 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sampdoria
0
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 2, Sudtirol have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 35%, Sudtirol 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Sampdoria) and 49% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 35% of games; Sudtirol in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 51% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Sampdoria's recent games and 49% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Sudtirol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Sudtirol 1-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.38 xG and Sudtirol 1.19 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Sudtirol attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 39% | Draw 31% | Sudtirol 30%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Sudtirol 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Sudtirol's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.14 PPG, Sudtirol 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.