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Poisson model rates Modena at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Reggiana travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Reggiana — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Reggiana's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 0.90 PPG versus Reggiana's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Modena, 3 for Reggiana and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Reggiana winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Modena in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Reggiana in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Reggiana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Reggiana 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.53 xG and Reggiana 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.947 / defence 0.959 | Reggiana attack 0.692 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.084. Data: 74 Modena games / 74 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Modena 55% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 15%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Reggiana 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Modena (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 60% | Reggiana 40%.

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