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Goal Fest Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest predicted expected total goals β€” Saturday 26 October 2024

Our prediction model calculates the expected number of goals each team is likely to score based on historical attack and defence strengths. Fixtures at the top of this list have the highest combined expected goals (xG) β€” making them the best candidates for Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score markets.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Saturday 26 October 2024. Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC led the list at 4.36 in the Pro League. The shortlist runs from 4.36 down to 3.32, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

The shortlist spans eight different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eleven landed the goal fest market — 55%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only β€” not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

#1 Pro League Β· United-Arab-Emirates
Ajman
0 : 0 FT
Al-Wasl FC
Win 48%
Draw 19%
Win 32%
Over 2.5 81% BTTS Yes 78%
#2 Pro League Β· United-Arab-Emirates
Al-Jazira
4 : 2 FT
Khorfakkan
βœ“ Win 57%
Draw 19%
Win 24%
✓ Over 2.5 77% ✓ BTTS Yes 73%
#3 Bundesliga Β· Germany
VfB Stuttgart
2 : 1 FT
Holstein Kiel
βœ“ Win 62%
Draw 20%
Win 18%
✓ Over 2.5 77% ✓ BTTS Yes 72%
#4 League One Β· England
Bolton
1 : 0 FT
Peterborough
βœ“ Win 45%
Draw 20%
Win 35%
Over 2.5 77% BTTS Yes 75%
#5 League Two Β· England
Newport County
0 : 0 FT
Fleetwood Town
Win 35%
Draw 21%
Win 44%
Over 2.5 76% BTTS Yes 75%
#6 Premier League Β· England
Manchester City
1 : 0 FT
Southampton
βœ“ Win 72%
Draw 16%
Win 12%
Over 2.5 76% BTTS Yes 65%
#7 2. Bundesliga Β· Germany
FC Schalke 04
3 : 4 FT
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Win 34%
Draw 23%
βœ“ Win 43%
✓ Over 2.5 75% ✓ BTTS Yes 74%
#8 Thai League 1 Β· Thailand
Buriram United
1 : 1 FT
Lamphun Warrior
Win 83%
Draw 13%
Win 5%
Over 2.5 74%
#9 2. Bundesliga Β· Germany
Karlsruher SC
1 : 3 FT
Hertha BSC
Win 41%
Draw 24%
Win 36%
✓ Over 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS Yes 72%
#10 Serie A Β· Italy
Atalanta
6 : 1 FT
Hellas Verona
βœ“ Win 53%
Draw 23%
Win 25%
✓ Over 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS Yes 70%
#11 Pro League Β· United-Arab-Emirates
Al Urooba
1 : 0 FT
Baniyas SC
Win 23%
Draw 20%
Win 57%
Over 2.5 71% BTTS Yes 68%
#12 Premier League Β· England
Brighton
2 : 2 FT
Wolves
Win 54%
Draw 22%
Win 23%
✓ Over 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS Yes 68%
#13 Premier League Β· England
Brentford
4 : 3 FT
Ipswich
βœ“ Win 66%
Draw 20%
Win 14%
✓ Over 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS Yes 61%
#14 Bundesliga Β· Germany
FC Augsburg
2 : 1 FT
Borussia Dortmund
βœ“ Win 55%
Draw 23%
Win 22%
✓ Over 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS Yes 66%
#15 Premier League Β· Russia
CSKA Moscow
0 : 0 FT
Fakel
Win 71%
Draw 19%
Win 10%
Over 2.5 67% BTTS Yes 57%
#16 La Liga Β· Spain
Real Madrid
0 : 4 FT
Barcelona
Win 45%
Draw 25%
Win 30%
✓ Over 2.5 67% BTTS Yes 68%
#17 Serie B Β· Italy
Cesena
2 : 0 FT
Brescia
βœ“ Win 39%
Draw 26%
Win 35%
Over 2.5 66% BTTS Yes 68%
#18 K League 1 Β· South-Korea
Gangwon FC
1 : 0 FT
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
βœ“ Win 58%
Draw 21%
Win 22%
Over 2.5 66% BTTS Yes 63%
#19 League Two Β· England
Grimsby
1 : 3 FT
Milton Keynes Dons
Win 26%
Draw 22%
βœ“ Win 53%
✓ Over 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS Yes 64%
#20 Ligue 1 Β· France
Angers
4 : 2 FT
Saint Etienne
βœ“ Win 49%
Draw 27%
Win 23%
✓ Over 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS Yes 66%

Showing top 20 fixtures by combined expected goals. Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Goal Fest β€” common questions

What does the Goal Fest market mean?

Goal Fest settles on whether a match is expected to produce a high combined goal count. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate goal fest probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The combined expected goals shown here is the sum of both teams' expected goals, derived from their attack and defence strengths. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Goal Fest on Saturday 26 October 2024?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Ajman vs Al-Wasl FC at 4.36 combined expected goals.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with the highest combined expected goals of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these goal fest predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.