FC Augsburg 2-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 55%, yet in-form Borussia Dortmund provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Borussia Dortmund, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for FC Augsburg.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 1–5 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 68% and Borussia Dortmund 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 68% | Borussia Dortmund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.16 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.127 / defence 0.974 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.811 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.680. Data: 41 FC Augsburg games / 41 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 55% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Borussia Dortmund 4.55. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 55% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Augsburg 2.16 / Borussia Dortmund 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.127 / def 0.974 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.811 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.680 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 55% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (6 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 2 | Borussia Dortmund 4W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (1.13) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.29
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.49
1.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
12%
8.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
2%
40.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.33 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 10D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.85 PPG from 41 outings (22W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Augsburg's home form reads 8W 6D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.55 points per game from 20 outings (8W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 22W 10D 9L in their last 41 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.50 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 75%, Borussia Dortmund at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Augsburg and 60% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Augsburg's games and 65% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Augsburg's matches and 60% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out Borussia Dortmund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.16 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.33 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 55% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 22%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 68%, Borussia Dortmund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.