Gangwon FC 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gangneung Stadium plays host to Gangwon FC versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 06:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gangwon FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gangwon FC at Gangneung Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Gangneung Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Gangwon FC 1W, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Gangwon FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 65% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 59% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 2.14 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.363 / defence 1.078 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.935 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.234. Gangwon FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 Gangwon FC games / 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 58% | Draw 21% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Gangwon FC (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 70% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 58% | Draw 21% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Gangwon FC 2.14 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.363 / def 1.078 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.935 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gangwon FC 1 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 58% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (3 meetings): Gangwon FC 1W | Draws 0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.36) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.94x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.88
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
3.38
1.24
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
3%
39.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.24 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 34 games, going 17W 7D 10L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 1.68 PPG from 34 outings (16W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.68 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 10W 5D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gangwon FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 17W 7D 10L in their last 34 games (1.71 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 16W 9D 9L in their last 34 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 2.06 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-4 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gangwon FC
1
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 71%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Gangwon FC) and 47% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Gangwon FC's games and 47% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Gangwon FC's matches and 47% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 at Gangneung Stadium, Championship Round - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 2.14 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.24 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.36 / defence 1.08 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 58% | Draw 21% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 59%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.71 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.