VfB Stuttgart 2-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Holstein Kiel at MHPArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart at MHPArena this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Holstein Kiel away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 61% versus Holstein Kiel 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 76% | Holstein Kiel 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.64 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.345 / defence 0.916 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.931 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.680. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 VfB Stuttgart games / 7 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 62% | Draw 20% | Holstein Kiel 18%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Holstein Kiel 5.56. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Holstein Kiel 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 62% | Draw 20% | Holstein Kiel 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 72% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.64 / Holstein Kiel 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.345 / def 0.916 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.931 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.680 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (62%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Holstein Kiel xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 62% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.34x the league average against Holstein Kiel's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.11
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
4.07
1.43
Holstein Kiel xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
7%
14.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
1%
77.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.43 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 41 games, going 25W 7D 9L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.71 PPG from 41 outings (21W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 2.00 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 14W 5D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 2.05 points per game from 20 outings (12W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.80 scored and 1.46 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 25W 7D 9L in their last 41 games (2.00 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 21W 7D 13L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Holstein Kiel away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.35 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 2.05 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
0
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel?
From 2 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Holstein Kiel have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Holstein Kiel 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 65%, Holstein Kiel 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for VfB Stuttgart and 55% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Holstein Kiel in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 50% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 55% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out Holstein Kiel 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.64 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.43 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.34 / defence 0.92 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.93 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 62% | Draw 20% | Holstein Kiel 18%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 76%, Holstein Kiel 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 2.00 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.