Buriram United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (83%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Lamphun Warrior.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chang Arena plays host to Buriram United versus Lamphun Warrior in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 3.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Chang Arena this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Buriram United. A 1.70 PPG lead over Lamphun Warrior (2.80 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Buriram United are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Buriram United winning.
The historical record gives Buriram United a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Buriram United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 47% versus Lamphun Warrior 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 63% | Lamphun Warrior 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 3.10 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.554 / defence 0.781 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.830 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.119. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.554 — their λ of 3.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Buriram United games / 40 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 83% | Draw 13% | Lamphun Warrior 5%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.20 | Draw 7.69 | Lamphun Warrior 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (83%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 60% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 83% | Draw 13% | Lamphun Warrior 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 50% | xG Buriram United 3.10 / Lamphun Warrior 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.554 / def 0.781 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.830 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (83%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
3.10
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Lamphun Warrior xG
50%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Buriram United 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 83% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 5% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (4 meetings): Buriram United 4W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Buriram United (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.55x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 3.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.83x) against Buriram United's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 38/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 4-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
83%
1.21
13%
7.94
5%
21.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
4 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.10
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.83
0.72
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.21
83%
Home win
7.94
13%
Draw
21.69
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
5%
22.20
Win to Nil
40%
2.49
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 3.10 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.72 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Buriram United come into this having played 38 games, going 27W 10D 1L for 2.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.21 PPG from 38 outings (12W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Buriram United's home form reads 15W 4D 0L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.63 points per game from 19 outings (2W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 2.53 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 27W 10D 1L in their last 38 games (2.39 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Buriram United's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.58 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Buriram United
2
Draws
0
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 6, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Buriram United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 47%, Lamphun Warrior 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Buriram United and 58% for Lamphun Warrior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Buriram United's recent matches and 47% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Buriram United's matches and 58% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 3.10 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.72 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Buriram United fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.55 / defence 0.78 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 83% | Draw 13% | Lamphun Warrior 5%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 83%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 63%, Lamphun Warrior 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.